“Low-energy” Jeb, “lyin’ Ted,” “little Marco,” “crazy Megyn;” all names that Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2016 presidential elections, has called his fellow party-members. His next one should be “opportunist Ben” in reference to Trump’s latest enemy turned friend, Ben Carson. There are reports that Carson has been offered a position in a Trump administration. While the particulars of the position have not been leaked by neither Carson or Trump, Mother Jones reports that Trump offered to make Carson his running mate. That move makes sense. Why else would a brain surgeon endorse a man that compared said brain surgeon’s temperament to that of a “child molester.” Is this good strategy for Trump? Can Carson, an African American, bring Trump the minority vote he so desperately needs to win the general election? A good place to begin some Common Ground Analysis is to look at the electorate and how different groups have voted in past elections.
Undeniably, Trump or the democratic nominee will need the white vote.
Clearly, the white vote alone will not win the election. In order to win, a candidate must garner some votes from groups other than whites. So far, Trump’s candidacy has disparaged Muslims, Hispanics, Blacks, Women and even Asians.
Does Trump think he will win the presidency with only the white vote? Of course not! This is why he would want to have Ben Carson as his running mate. During his victory speech following the 2016 Indiana Republican primary, Ben Carson was one of the few names mentioned by the newly proclaimed presumptive Republican nominee for the 2016 general presidential election.
#TrumpandCarson, two clear “non-establishment” candidates, will be a ticket that current GOP voters, clearly looking for non-establishment candidates, can rally behind. Imagine that middle-finger to current Washington Republicans? Carson may also be able to deliver the minority votes for Trump.
In the 1984 election, white voters made 86 percent of the electorate, black votes made up 10 percent and Hispanics made up for only 3 percent. In 2004, the white vote decreased to 77 percent, black votes went up to 11 percent and Hispanics grew to 8 percent.
In the historic 2008 presidential elections, that resulted in the first African-American President, the white vote again shrunk to 74 percent while the black electorate grew to 13 percent and the Hispanic electorate reached 9 percent. Finally, in 2012, when President Obama defeated Mr. Romney, we saw the white electorate drop to 72 percent while black voters remained at 13 percent and the Hispanic electorate reached 10 percent.
The clear trend is that the white electorate is shrinking and the minority electorate is growing. In 1984, minorities only made up 13 percent of the electorate. In 2012, the electorate was over a quarter minority. If this trend continues, it could spell trouble for Trump. The white electorate can dip under 70 percent while minority votes can get to as high as 35 percent. There are already reports of Hispanics, once content with living in America with just a green card, making a push to gain citizenship in order to vote against Trump. So what does Trump do? He calls on opportunist Ben, the guy that would do anything to sell books and stay in the limelight.
Opportunistic Ben lost his own bid for the White House. Opportunistic Ben has retired from performing neurosurgery; opportunistic Ben has run out of college speeches to give; opportunistic Ben is tired of working in the shadows. Donald Trump knows opportunist Ben just wants to be down with the right wingers. Donald Trump can gain the minority votes, he so desperately needs, if he has the black, often labeled “soft-spoken,” Ben Carson to run with him. In a general election, Trump knows he will have to deal with the Black Lives Matter movement. Trump knows that he has been labeled a racist by many progressives. Additionally many other groups, especially minorities, will be energized to protest and vote against him.
Who better to combat these possible derailments (and rallies) than the oft “soft-spoken” black surgeon, opportunist Ben?
Will it work?
We have to wait till the season finale in November.
theamidl.com 